ZEV cost: Total cost of ownership

Verified on 13 March 2024

Median year of TCO parity between ZEV and ICE HDV in current literature by market and vehicle segment

Source: ICCT Research. For a full list of studies and parity projections, please see the table below.

Box and whiskers plot analyzing the TCO parity projections in current literature for various vehicle segments in a given market. In the case a single study exists for a market – vehicle segment combination,  the median year of TCO parity is the median between a range of years in which ZEV HDVs are likely to achieve TCO parity with ICE HDVs. In the case of multiple studies, the median value reported is the median of median values aggregated from different studies. 

Median year of TCO parity between ZEV and ICE HDV by research group, market, vehicle class, and vehicle segment

Research GroupStudy YearMarketVehicle ClassVehicle SegmentMedian year of TCO ParityLast Updated
ANL - BEAN2021USABusTransit bus20243/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USABusCity bus20323/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USABusSchool bus20263/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USAHDTRefuse trucks20253/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USAMDTVocational vehicle20243/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USAHDTShort haul tractors20313/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USAHDTShort haul rigid trucks20283/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USAHDTLong haul tractors20433/30/2022
NREL2021USAMDTVocational vehicle20203/30/2022
NREL2021USAHDTShort haul tractors20233/30/2022
NREL2021USAHDTLong haul tractors20503/30/2022
ANL2021USAMDTShort haul rigid trucks20233/30/2022
ANL2021USAHDTShort haul tractors20273/30/2022
ANL2021USAHDTLong haul tractors20313/30/2022
EDF - MJB2021USAHDTRefuse trucks20253/30/2022
EDF - MJB2021USAMDTVocational vehicle20253/30/2022
EDF - MJB2021USAHDTShort haul rigid trucks20253/30/2022
EDF - MJB2021USAHDTShort haul tractors20253/30/2022
EDF - MJB2021USAMDTLong haul tractors20303/30/2022
EDF - MJB2021USAHDTLong haul tractors20253/30/2022
ZEV Alliance2020USAMDTShort haul rigid trucks20273/30/2022
ZEV Alliance2020USAHDTShort haul tractors20273/30/2022
ZEV Alliance2020USAHDTLong haul tractors20303/30/2022
CARB2021CaliforniaHDTRefuse trucks20253/30/2022
CARB2021CaliforniaMDTPickup trucks and vans20253/30/2022
CARB2021CaliforniaHDTShort haul tractors20253/30/2022
CARB2021CaliforniaHDTLong haul tractors20253/30/2022
EDF - Rousch2022USABusTransit bus20273/30/2022
EDF - Rousch2022USABusSchool bus20273/30/2022
EDF - Rousch2022USAHDTRefuse trucks20273/30/2022
EDF - Rousch2022USAMDTShort haul rigid trucks20273/30/2022
ICCT2019USAHDTLong haul tractors20303/30/2022
ICCT2022USAMDTPickup trucks and vans20223/30/2022
NREL2022USABusTransit bus20323/30/2022
NREL2022USAMDTShort haul rigid trucks20303/30/2022
NREL2022USAHDTShort haul tractors20323/30/2022
NREL2022USAHDTLong haul tractors20353/30/2022
LBNL2021USAHDTLong haul tractors20223/30/2022
TNE2018EUBusTransit bus20183/30/2022
Meishner & Sauer2019EUBusTransit bus20193/30/2022
Strategy&2020EUMDTVocational vehicle20303/30/2022
Strategy&2020EUHDTLong haul tractors20303/30/2022
Strategy&2020EUHDTShort haul tractors20303/30/2022
ING2019EUHDTLong haul tractors20303/30/2022
ICCT2021GermanyHDTLong-haul tractors20293/30/2022
ICCT2021ItalyHDTLong-haul tractors20283/30/2022
ICCT2021PolandHDTLong-haul tractors20273/30/2022
ICCT2021SpainHDTLong-haul tractors20263/30/2022
ICCT2021United KingdomHDTLong-haul tractors20253/30/2022
ICCT2021FranceHDTLong-haul tractors20253/30/2022
ICCT2021NetherlandsHDTLong-haul tractors20243/30/2022
LBNL2018IndiaBusTransit bus20223/30/2022
TERI2020IndiaBusTransit bus20223/30/2022
TERI2020IndiaHDTLong-haul tractors20303/30/2022
GIZ2021MexicoBusTransit bus20303/30/2022
ICCT2022FranceMDTLast mile delivery trucks and vans20265/18/2023
ICCT2022GermanyMDTLast mile delivery trucks and vans20265/18/2023
ICCT2022ItalyMDTLast mile delivery trucks and vans20265/18/2023
ICCT2022NetherlandsMDTLast mile delivery trucks and vans20305/18/2023
ICCT2022PolandMDTLast mile delivery trucks and vans20295/18/2023
ICCT2022United KingdomMDTLast mile delivery trucks and vans20285/18/2023
RMI2022IndiaMDTShort haul trucks20225/18/2023
RMI2022IndiaMDTRegional haul trucks20225/18/2023
RMI2022IndiaHDTRegional haul tractors20245/18/2023
RMI2022IndiaHDTLong haul trucks20275/18/2023
ICCT2023USAHDTLong haul tractors20295/18/2023
NREL2022USAHDTHydrogen FC yard tractors20255/18/2023
NREL2022USAHDTHydrogen FC refuse trucks20355/18/2023
ICCT2023EUHDT500 km return-depot BEV truck20253/5/2024
ICCT2023EUHDT500 km return-depot FCEV truck20353/5/2024
ICCT2023EUHDT800 km return-depot BEV truck20263/5/2024
ICCT2023EUHDT800 km return-depot FCEV truck20363/5/2024
ICCT2023EUHDT1000 km cross-border BEV truck20263/5/2024
ICCT2023EUHDT1000 km cross-border FCEV truck20363/5/2024
ICCT2023EUHDTHeavy-duty regional BEV truck20233/5/2024
ICCT2023EUHDTHeavy-duty regional FCEV truck20363/5/2024
ICCT2023EUMDTMedium-duty urban BEV truck20233/5/2024
ICCT2023EUMDTMedium-duty urban FCEV truck20303/5/2024
ICCT2023EULDTLight-duty urban BEV truck20233/5/2024
ICCT2023EULDTLight-duty urban FCEV truck20303/5/2024