ZEV cost: Total cost of ownership
Verified on 10/31/2022
Median year of TCO parity between ZEV and ICE HDV in current literature by market and vehicle segment
Box and whiskers plot analyzing the TCO parity projections in current literature for various vehicle segments in a given market. In the case a single study exists for a market-vehicle segment combination, the median year of TCO parity is the median between a range of years in which ZEV HDVs are likely to achieve TCO parity with ICE HDVs. In the case of multiple studies, the median value reported is the median of median values aggregated from different studies.
Source: ICCT Research, please see the table below for a full list of studies and parity projections.
Median year of TCO parity between ZEV and ICE HDV by research group, market, vehicle class, and vehicle segment
Research group | Study year | Market | Vehicle class | Vehicle segment | Median year of TCO Parity | URL | Last updated |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZEV Alliance | 2020 | USA | MDT | Short haul rigid trucks | 2027 | http://www.zevalliance.org/zero-emission-freight-2020/ | 03/30/2022 |
ZEV Alliance | 2020 | USA | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2027 | http://www.zevalliance.org/zero-emission-freight-2020/ | 03/30/2022 |
ZEV Alliance | 2020 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2030 | http://www.zevalliance.org/zero-emission-freight-2020/ | 03/30/2022 |
Meishner & Sauer | 2019 | EU | Bus | Transit bus | 2019 | https://d-nb.info/1216637784/34 | 03/30/2022 |
LBNL | 2021 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2022 | https://escholarship.org/content/qt3kj8s12f/qt3kj8s12f.pdf?t=qqrw7t | 03/30/2022 |
LBNL | 2018 | India | Bus | Transit bus | 2022 | https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7d64m1cd | 03/30/2022 |
ANL | 2021 | USA | MDT | Short haul rigid trucks | 2023 | https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2021/05/167399.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
ANL | 2021 | USA | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2027 | https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2021/05/167399.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
ANL | 2021 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2031 | https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2021/05/167399.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2022 | USA | MDT | Pickup trucks and vans | 2022 | https://theicct.org/publication/cost-ev-vans-pickups-us-2040-jan22/ | 03/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2019 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2030 | https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_EV_HDVs_Infrastructure_20190809.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | Germany | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2029 | https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | Italy | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2028 | https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | Poland | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2027 | https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | Spain | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2026 | https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | United Kingdom | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2025 | https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | France | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2025 | https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | Netherlands | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2024 | https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | Bus | Transit bus | 2024 | https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/ | 03/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | Bus | City bus | 2032 | https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/ | 03/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | Bus | School bus | 2026 | https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/ | 03/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | HDT | Refuse trucks | 2025 | https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/ | 03/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | MDT | Vocational vehicle | 2024 | https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/ | 03/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2031 | https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/ | 03/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | HDT | Short haul rigid trucks | 2028 | https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/ | 03/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2043 | https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/ | 03/30/2022 |
CARB | 2021 | California | HDT | Refuse trucks | 2025 | https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/210909costdoc_ADA.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
CARB | 2021 | California | MDT | Pickup trucks and vans | 2025 | https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/210909costdoc_ADA.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
CARB | 2021 | California | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2025 | https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/210909costdoc_ADA.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
CARB | 2021 | California | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2025 | https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/210909costdoc_ADA.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
EDF - Rousch | 2022 | USA | Bus | Transit bus | 2027 | https://www.edf.org/media/new-study-finds-rapidly-declining-costs-zero-emitting-freight-trucks-and-buses | 03/30/2022 |
EDF - Rousch | 2022 | USA | Bus | School bus | 2027 | https://www.edf.org/media/new-study-finds-rapidly-declining-costs-zero-emitting-freight-trucks-and-buses | 03/30/2022 |
EDF - Rousch | 2022 | USA | HDT | Refuse trucks | 2027 | https://www.edf.org/media/new-study-finds-rapidly-declining-costs-zero-emitting-freight-trucks-and-buses | 03/30/2022 |
EDF - Rousch | 2022 | USA | MDT | Short haul rigid trucks | 2027 | https://www.edf.org/media/new-study-finds-rapidly-declining-costs-zero-emitting-freight-trucks-and-buses | 03/30/2022 |
EDF - MJB | 2021 | USA | HDT | Refuse trucks | 2025 | https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/EDFMHDVEVFeasibilityReport22jul21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
EDF - MJB | 2021 | USA | MDT | Vocational vehicle | 2025 | https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/EDFMHDVEVFeasibilityReport22jul21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
EDF - MJB | 2021 | USA | HDT | Short haul rigid trucks | 2025 | https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/EDFMHDVEVFeasibilityReport22jul21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
EDF - MJB | 2021 | USA | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2025 | https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/EDFMHDVEVFeasibilityReport22jul21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
EDF - MJB | 2021 | USA | MDT | Long haul tractors | 2030 | https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/EDFMHDVEVFeasibilityReport22jul21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
EDF - MJB | 2021 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2025 | https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/EDFMHDVEVFeasibilityReport22jul21.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
GIZ | 2021 | Mexico | Bus | Transit bus | 2030 | https://www.energypartnership.mx/fileadmin/user_upload/mexico/media_elements/reports/Hidro%CC%81geno_AE_Tomo_V.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
ING | 2019 | EU | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2030 | https://www.ing.nl/zakelijk/kennis-over-de-economie/uw-sector/transport-en-logistiek/electric-heavy-duty-trucks.html | 03/30/2022 |
NREL | 2021 | USA | MDT | Vocational vehicle | 2020 | https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/71796.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
NREL | 2021 | USA | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2023 | https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/71796.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
NREL | 2021 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2050 | https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/71796.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
NREL | 2022 | USA | Bus | Transit bus | 2032 | https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82081.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
NREL | 2022 | USA | MDT | Short haul rigid trucks | 2030 | https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82081.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
NREL | 2022 | USA | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2032 | https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82081.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
NREL | 2022 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2035 | https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82081.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
Strategy& | 2020 | EU | MDT | Vocational vehicle | 2030 | https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/de/en/industries/transport/green-trucking-2020/truck-study-2020.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
Strategy& | 2020 | EU | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2030 | https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/de/en/industries/transport/green-trucking-2020/truck-study-2020.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
Strategy& | 2020 | EU | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2030 | https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/de/en/industries/transport/green-trucking-2020/truck-study-2020.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
TERI | 2020 | India | Bus | Transit bus | 2022 | https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/Report_on_The_Potential_Role_of_%20Hydrogen_in_India.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
TERI | 2020 | India | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2030 | https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/Report_on_The_Potential_Role_of_%20Hydrogen_in_India.pdf | 03/30/2022 |
TNE | 2018 | EU | Bus | Transit bus | 2018 | https://www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Electric-buses-arrive-on-time-1.pdf | 03/30/2022 |