ZEV cost: Total cost of ownership
Verified on 20 November 2024
Median year of TCO parity between ZEV and ICE HDV in current literature by market and vehicle segment
Source: ICCT Research. For a full list of studies and parity projections, please see the table below.
Box and whiskers plot analyzing the TCO parity projections in current literature for various vehicle segments in a given market. In the case a single study exists for a market – vehicle segment combination, the median year of TCO parity is the median between a range of years in which ZEV HDVs are likely to achieve TCO parity with ICE HDVs. In the case of multiple studies, the median value reported is the median of median values aggregated from different studies.
Median year of TCO parity between ZEV and ICE HDV by research group, market, vehicle class, and vehicle segment
Research Group | Study Year | Market | Vehicle Class | Vehicle Segment | Median year of TCO Parity | Last Updated |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | Bus | Transit bus | 2024 | 3/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | Bus | City bus | 2032 | 3/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | Bus | School bus | 2026 | 3/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | HDT | Refuse trucks | 2025 | 3/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | MDT | Vocational vehicle | 2024 | 3/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2031 | 3/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | HDT | Short haul rigid trucks | 2028 | 3/30/2022 |
ANL - BEAN | 2021 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2043 | 3/30/2022 |
NREL | 2021 | USA | MDT | Vocational vehicle | 2020 | 3/30/2022 |
NREL | 2021 | USA | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2023 | 3/30/2022 |
NREL | 2021 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2050 | 3/30/2022 |
ANL | 2021 | USA | MDT | Short haul rigid trucks | 2023 | 3/30/2022 |
ANL | 2021 | USA | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2027 | 3/30/2022 |
ANL | 2021 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2031 | 3/30/2022 |
EDF - MJB | 2021 | USA | HDT | Refuse trucks | 2025 | 3/30/2022 |
EDF - MJB | 2021 | USA | MDT | Vocational vehicle | 2025 | 3/30/2022 |
EDF - MJB | 2021 | USA | HDT | Short haul rigid trucks | 2025 | 3/30/2022 |
EDF - MJB | 2021 | USA | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2025 | 3/30/2022 |
EDF - MJB | 2021 | USA | MDT | Long haul tractors | 2030 | 3/30/2022 |
EDF - MJB | 2021 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2025 | 3/30/2022 |
ZEV Alliance | 2020 | USA | MDT | Short haul rigid trucks | 2027 | 3/30/2022 |
ZEV Alliance | 2020 | USA | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2027 | 3/30/2022 |
ZEV Alliance | 2020 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2030 | 3/30/2022 |
CARB | 2021 | California | HDT | Refuse trucks | 2025 | 3/30/2022 |
CARB | 2021 | California | MDT | Pickup trucks and vans | 2025 | 3/30/2022 |
CARB | 2021 | California | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2025 | 3/30/2022 |
CARB | 2021 | California | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2025 | 3/30/2022 |
EDF - Rousch | 2022 | USA | Bus | Transit bus | 2027 | 3/30/2022 |
EDF - Rousch | 2022 | USA | Bus | School bus | 2027 | 3/30/2022 |
EDF - Rousch | 2022 | USA | HDT | Refuse trucks | 2027 | 3/30/2022 |
EDF - Rousch | 2022 | USA | MDT | Short haul rigid trucks | 2027 | 3/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2019 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2030 | 3/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2022 | USA | MDT | Pickup trucks and vans | 2022 | 3/30/2022 |
NREL | 2022 | USA | Bus | Transit bus | 2032 | 3/30/2022 |
NREL | 2022 | USA | MDT | Short haul rigid trucks | 2030 | 3/30/2022 |
NREL | 2022 | USA | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2032 | 3/30/2022 |
NREL | 2022 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2035 | 3/30/2022 |
LBNL | 2021 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2022 | 3/30/2022 |
TNE | 2018 | EU | Bus | Transit bus | 2018 | 3/30/2022 |
Meishner & Sauer | 2019 | EU | Bus | Transit bus | 2019 | 3/30/2022 |
Strategy& | 2020 | EU | MDT | Vocational vehicle | 2030 | 3/30/2022 |
Strategy& | 2020 | EU | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2030 | 3/30/2022 |
Strategy& | 2020 | EU | HDT | Short haul tractors | 2030 | 3/30/2022 |
ING | 2019 | EU | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2030 | 3/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | Germany | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2029 | 3/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | Italy | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2028 | 3/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | Poland | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2027 | 3/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | Spain | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2026 | 3/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | United Kingdom | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2025 | 3/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | France | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2025 | 3/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2021 | Netherlands | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2024 | 3/30/2022 |
LBNL | 2018 | India | Bus | Transit bus | 2022 | 3/30/2022 |
TERI | 2020 | India | Bus | Transit bus | 2022 | 3/30/2022 |
TERI | 2020 | India | HDT | Long-haul tractors | 2030 | 3/30/2022 |
GIZ | 2021 | Mexico | Bus | Transit bus | 2030 | 3/30/2022 |
ICCT | 2022 | France | MDT | Last mile delivery trucks and vans | 2026 | 5/18/2023 |
ICCT | 2022 | Germany | MDT | Last mile delivery trucks and vans | 2026 | 5/18/2023 |
ICCT | 2022 | Italy | MDT | Last mile delivery trucks and vans | 2026 | 5/18/2023 |
ICCT | 2022 | Netherlands | MDT | Last mile delivery trucks and vans | 2030 | 5/18/2023 |
ICCT | 2022 | Poland | MDT | Last mile delivery trucks and vans | 2029 | 5/18/2023 |
ICCT | 2022 | United Kingdom | MDT | Last mile delivery trucks and vans | 2028 | 5/18/2023 |
RMI | 2022 | India | MDT | Short haul trucks | 2022 | 5/18/2023 |
RMI | 2022 | India | MDT | Regional haul trucks | 2022 | 5/18/2023 |
RMI | 2022 | India | HDT | Regional haul tractors | 2024 | 5/18/2023 |
RMI | 2022 | India | HDT | Long haul trucks | 2027 | 5/18/2023 |
ICCT | 2023 | USA | HDT | Long haul tractors | 2029 | 5/18/2023 |
NREL | 2022 | USA | HDT | Hydrogen FC yard tractors | 2025 | 5/18/2023 |
NREL | 2022 | USA | HDT | Hydrogen FC refuse trucks | 2035 | 5/18/2023 |
ICCT | 2023 | EU | HDT | 500 km return-depot BEV truck | 2025 | 3/5/2024 |
ICCT | 2023 | EU | HDT | 500 km return-depot FCEV truck | 2035 | 3/5/2024 |
ICCT | 2023 | EU | HDT | 800 km return-depot BEV truck | 2026 | 3/5/2024 |
ICCT | 2023 | EU | HDT | 800 km return-depot FCEV truck | 2036 | 3/5/2024 |
ICCT | 2023 | EU | HDT | 1000 km cross-border BEV truck | 2026 | 3/5/2024 |
ICCT | 2023 | EU | HDT | 1000 km cross-border FCEV truck | 2036 | 3/5/2024 |
ICCT | 2023 | EU | HDT | Heavy-duty regional BEV truck | 2023 | 3/5/2024 |
ICCT | 2023 | EU | HDT | Heavy-duty regional FCEV truck | 2036 | 3/5/2024 |
ICCT | 2023 | EU | MDT | Medium-duty urban BEV truck | 2023 | 3/5/2024 |
ICCT | 2023 | EU | MDT | Medium-duty urban FCEV truck | 2030 | 3/5/2024 |
ICCT | 2023 | EU | LDT | Light-duty urban BEV truck | 2023 | 3/5/2024 |
ICCT | 2023 | EU | LDT | Light-duty urban FCEV truck | 2030 | 3/5/2024 |