ZEV cost: Total cost of ownership

Median year of TCO parity between ZEV and ICE HDV in current literature by market and vehicle segment

Box and whiskers plot analyzing the TCO parity projections in current literature for various vehicle segments in a given market. In the case a single study exists for a market-vehicle segment combination, the median year of TCO parity is the median between a range of years in which ZEV HDVs are likely to achieve TCO parity with ICE HDVs. In the case of multiple studies, the median value reported is the median of median values aggregated from different studies.

Source: ICCT Research, please see the table below for a full list of studies and parity projections.

Median year of TCO parity between ZEV and ICE HDV by research group, market, vehicle class, and vehicle segment

Research groupStudy yearMarketVehicle classVehicle segmentMedian year of TCO ParityURLLast updated
ZEV Alliance2020USAMDTShort haul rigid trucks2027http://www.zevalliance.org/zero-emission-freight-2020/03/30/2022
ZEV Alliance2020USAHDTShort haul tractors2027http://www.zevalliance.org/zero-emission-freight-2020/03/30/2022
ZEV Alliance2020USAHDTLong haul tractors2030http://www.zevalliance.org/zero-emission-freight-2020/03/30/2022
Meishner & Sauer2019EUBusTransit bus2019https://d-nb.info/1216637784/3403/30/2022
LBNL2021USAHDTLong haul tractors2022https://escholarship.org/content/qt3kj8s12f/qt3kj8s12f.pdf?t=qqrw7t03/30/2022
LBNL2018IndiaBusTransit bus2022https://escholarship.org/uc/item/7d64m1cd03/30/2022
ANL2021USAMDTShort haul rigid trucks2023https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2021/05/167399.pdf03/30/2022
ANL2021USAHDTShort haul tractors2027https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2021/05/167399.pdf03/30/2022
ANL2021USAHDTLong haul tractors2031https://publications.anl.gov/anlpubs/2021/05/167399.pdf03/30/2022
ICCT2022USAMDTPickup trucks and vans2022https://theicct.org/publication/cost-ev-vans-pickups-us-2040-jan22/03/30/2022
ICCT2019USAHDTLong haul tractors2030https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/ICCT_EV_HDVs_Infrastructure_20190809.pdf03/30/2022
ICCT2021GermanyHDTLong-haul tractors2029https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf03/30/2022
ICCT2021ItalyHDTLong-haul tractors2028https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf03/30/2022
ICCT2021PolandHDTLong-haul tractors2027https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf03/30/2022
ICCT2021SpainHDTLong-haul tractors2026https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf03/30/2022
ICCT2021United KingdomHDTLong-haul tractors2025https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf03/30/2022
ICCT2021FranceHDTLong-haul tractors2025https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf03/30/2022
ICCT2021NetherlandsHDTLong-haul tractors2024https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/TCO-BETs-Europe-white-paper-v4-nov21.pdf03/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USABusTransit bus2024https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/03/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USABusCity bus2032https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/03/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USABusSchool bus2026https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/03/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USAHDTRefuse trucks2025https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/03/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USAMDTVocational vehicle2024https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/03/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USAHDTShort haul tractors2031https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/03/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USAHDTShort haul rigid trucks2028https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/03/30/2022
ANL - BEAN2021USAHDTLong haul tractors2043https://vms.es.anl.gov/tools/bean/03/30/2022
CARB2021CaliforniaHDTRefuse trucks2025https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/210909costdoc_ADA.pdf03/30/2022
CARB2021CaliforniaMDTPickup trucks and vans2025https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/210909costdoc_ADA.pdf03/30/2022
CARB2021CaliforniaHDTShort haul tractors2025https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/210909costdoc_ADA.pdf03/30/2022
CARB2021CaliforniaHDTLong haul tractors2025https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-08/210909costdoc_ADA.pdf03/30/2022
EDF - Rousch2022USABusTransit bus2027https://www.edf.org/media/new-study-finds-rapidly-declining-costs-zero-emitting-freight-trucks-and-buses03/30/2022
EDF - Rousch2022USABusSchool bus2027https://www.edf.org/media/new-study-finds-rapidly-declining-costs-zero-emitting-freight-trucks-and-buses03/30/2022
EDF - Rousch2022USAHDTRefuse trucks2027https://www.edf.org/media/new-study-finds-rapidly-declining-costs-zero-emitting-freight-trucks-and-buses03/30/2022
EDF - Rousch2022USAMDTShort haul rigid trucks2027https://www.edf.org/media/new-study-finds-rapidly-declining-costs-zero-emitting-freight-trucks-and-buses03/30/2022
EDF - MJB2021USAHDTRefuse trucks2025https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/EDFMHDVEVFeasibilityReport22jul21.pdf03/30/2022
EDF - MJB2021USAMDTVocational vehicle2025https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/EDFMHDVEVFeasibilityReport22jul21.pdf03/30/2022
EDF - MJB2021USAHDTShort haul rigid trucks2025https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/EDFMHDVEVFeasibilityReport22jul21.pdf03/30/2022
EDF - MJB2021USAHDTShort haul tractors2025https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/EDFMHDVEVFeasibilityReport22jul21.pdf03/30/2022
EDF - MJB2021USAMDTLong haul tractors2030https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/EDFMHDVEVFeasibilityReport22jul21.pdf03/30/2022
EDF - MJB2021USAHDTLong haul tractors2025https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/documents/EDFMHDVEVFeasibilityReport22jul21.pdf03/30/2022
GIZ2021MexicoBusTransit bus2030https://www.energypartnership.mx/fileadmin/user_upload/mexico/media_elements/reports/Hidro%CC%81geno_AE_Tomo_V.pdf03/30/2022
ING2019EUHDTLong haul tractors2030https://www.ing.nl/zakelijk/kennis-over-de-economie/uw-sector/transport-en-logistiek/electric-heavy-duty-trucks.html03/30/2022
NREL2021USAMDTVocational vehicle2020https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/71796.pdf03/30/2022
NREL2021USAHDTShort haul tractors2023https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/71796.pdf03/30/2022
NREL2021USAHDTLong haul tractors2050https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/71796.pdf03/30/2022
NREL2022USABusTransit bus2032https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82081.pdf03/30/2022
NREL2022USAMDTShort haul rigid trucks2030https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82081.pdf03/30/2022
NREL2022USAHDTShort haul tractors2032https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82081.pdf03/30/2022
NREL2022USAHDTLong haul tractors2035https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/82081.pdf03/30/2022
Strategy&2020EUMDTVocational vehicle2030https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/de/en/industries/transport/green-trucking-2020/truck-study-2020.pdf03/30/2022
Strategy&2020EUHDTLong haul tractors2030https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/de/en/industries/transport/green-trucking-2020/truck-study-2020.pdf03/30/2022
Strategy&2020EUHDTShort haul tractors2030https://www.strategyand.pwc.com/de/en/industries/transport/green-trucking-2020/truck-study-2020.pdf03/30/2022
TERI2020IndiaBusTransit bus2022https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/Report_on_The_Potential_Role_of_%20Hydrogen_in_India.pdf03/30/2022
TERI2020IndiaHDTLong-haul tractors2030https://www.teriin.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/Report_on_The_Potential_Role_of_%20Hydrogen_in_India.pdf03/30/2022
TNE2018EUBusTransit bus2018https://www.transportenvironment.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Electric-buses-arrive-on-time-1.pdf03/30/2022